Genetic Choices Scenarios
CRISPR is an early stage technology that permits easy splicing of DNA molecules. The promise of the technology is enticing since it could allow human selection of characteristics of children, including not only cosmetics features and intellect, but also avoidance of many inheritable diseases. It might also be used eventually to slow aging. Most bio-scientists agree that the manipulation of genetic material in 2018 in China of twin embryos (who were later carried to full term and born normally) was irresponsible because of lack of oversight, lack of peer review, lack of adequate discussion of the ethics of genome intervention, lack of human consent and inadequate animal testing. Where do we go on from here (say in the next 20 years)?
Scenario A. Genetic tech self-regulation
No agency outside of the field itself can know the full potential of this field. Many scientists and planners say government intervention and playing by the rules of "old science' will delay really fundamental progress in bringing genetics to its full potential. Let the discipline itself define its rules, carve out its future, and determine through internal, transparent discussion what research is acceptable and what is not. Then move forward to capture the benefits genetic manipulation offers.
Scenario B. Genetic tech external control
Many scientists and planners say government intervention is required to define the limits of acceptable research. If scientists and practitioners who are in the field are allowed to establish the bounds of acceptable research, it would be like putting the fox in charge of the chicken coup. Without regulatory oversight that places limits and constraints on the research, there will be nothing, for example, to prevent attempts to create a "master race." Then move forward carefully to capture the benefits genetic manipulation offers.
Scenario C. Genetic tech uncontrolled
While the official and unofficial debates about control of CRISPR and genetic engineering in general, rage on, the technology evolves. Illegal and unreviewed experiments on animals, and in some cases, humans, take place despite modest regulatory limits and dazzle scientists and lay persons alike with demonstrations of what is possible through genetic engineering and medicine. Some inherited diseases seem to be conquered and genetic medicine seems to be on track for even greater achievements. The media explode with laudatory reviews, most urging that we expedite the technology to capture its benefits as soon as possible.
Scenario D. Genetic tech downside
While the official and unofficial debates about control of CRISPR and genetic engineering in general, rage on, the technology evolves. Illegal and unreviewed experiments on animals, and in some cases, humans, take place despite modest regulatory limits. While there are some spectacular successes, particularly in the control of inherited diseases, there are also some spectacular failures such as the unexpected creation of new diseases, for which there are no known cures, death of some patients, and occasional births of monstrosities. The media explode with scathing reviews, most urging that we stop development and experiments with the technology to avoid its downside as soon as possible.